Obama could win the popular vote by 2 or 3 percentage points, but McCain could become President by patching together an Electoral College majority, Politico theorizes. It could happen if the Democrat rolls up bigger margins in blue states and also captures Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Virginia, but McCain wins all the Southern states that Bush claimed in 2004, except for Virginia, and also takes battleground states Michigan (won by Kerry in 2004) and New Hampshire (Bush in 2004).
Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000 by about half a percentage point, but, of course, Bush won the Electoral College vote, 271 to 266, when the Supreme Court kept Florida in his column.
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